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Precio cuenta (sombra) de la divisa en una estructura de tipo de cambio fijo. Estudio de Caso Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Raúl Castro
  • Manuel Felipe Avella

Abstract

El presente documento muestra la aplicación de una metodología para estimar el precio cuenta de eficiencia de la divisa2 bajo un tipo de cambio fijo, se presenta como estudio de caso una aplicación a la economía boliviana, para el periodo 2011-2016. Un régimen del tipo de cambio fijo implica, de manera general, que el país debe tener un stock de reservas internacionales suficiente para mantenerlo en el corto plazo; en el mediano y largo plazo los ajustes en la oferta y demanda de divisas- equilibrio de la cuenta corriente- se realiza vía el tipo de cambio real -precios relativos de los bienes transables (importables y exportables ) y los no transables-, incentivos (subsidios a las exportaciones, entre otros) y/o desincentivos (aranceles, medidas para arancelarias), dado el tipo de cambio nominal fijo. La razón precio cuenta de la divisa bajo estas consideraciones se ve afectada no solo por las elasticidades respectivas o las ponderaciones medias de las importaciones y exportaciones e incentivos y desincentivos respectivos, sino también por la relación del Índice de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio y el Índice del tipo de cambio real vigente (ITCRE/ITCRV). Los resultados muestran que para el caso boliviano existe un desalineamiento entre la tasa de cambio real y la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio de largo plazo y que la razón precio cuenta de la divisa para el periodo 2011-2016 con el método de ponderaciones medias de 1,19 y con el método de elasticidades de 1,19.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl Castro & Manuel Felipe Avella, 2020. "Precio cuenta (sombra) de la divisa en una estructura de tipo de cambio fijo. Estudio de Caso Bolivia," Documentos CEDE 18008, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:018008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    costo de oportunidad de la divisa; precio cuenta (sombra) de la divisa; evaluación de proyectos; cambios en el bienestar; distorsiones; tipo de cambio fijo.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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