Risk-Taking and Asset-Side Contagion in an Originate-to-Distribute Banking Model
In a model of originate-to-distribute (OTD) banking, I show that contagion may spread before any preference shock, fire sale, or change in lending margins takes place. The drivers of contagion are opaqueness of collateral and roll-over frequency. Complexity of structured finance and poor screening of noninstitutional borrowers induce both originators and investors at different stages of the OTD chain to develop heterogeneous expectations on the future value of securitized debt. When new information on the value of collateral is sufficiently bad, overleveraged banks are unable to repay loans and the supply of liquidity by lenders in the money market shrinks in the short term. Banks with accurate pricing models are unable to roll over their collateralized loans and go bankrupt for lack of liquidity. Under some conditions the industry is able to prevent contagion to solvent institutions. In the scenario where that is not feasible, policy makers shall limit their intervention to ensuring orderly resolution of insolvent banks’ default.
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- Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2002.
"Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
- Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2002. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," FMG Discussion Papers dp408, Financial Markets Group.
- Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2002. "Coordination failures and the lender of last resort : was Bagehot right after all?," HWWA Discussion Papers 184, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2002. "Coordination failures and the lender of last resort: was Bagehot right after all?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24928, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort : Was Bagehot Right After All?," IDEI Working Papers 294, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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