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GDP 5.0: Real-Time, Micro-Founded and Sustainable Metrics for Beyond-GDP Economic Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Warin
  • Sarah Elimam

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains the dominant yardstick for economic performance, yet its aggregated, nation-bound and market-exclusive nature obscures crucial dimensions of prosperity, equity and environmental sustainability. Building on recent advances in data science and the expanding “Beyond-GDP” literature, this article argues for a generational shift in economic measurement designated “GDP 5.0.” This new approach of GDP integrates high-frequency, geolocated micro-data with artificial-intelligence methods to generate real-time dashboards of economic activity, social welfare and planetary boundaries. The framework adopts an inductive, bottom-up approach, combining firm-level transactions, satellite imagery, sensor inputs, and social indicators. These diverse data streams are fused using explainable machine learning techniques to construct composite indices that capture regional heterogeneity and internalize negative externalities. The article examines the methodological foundations, governance challenges, and safeguards against algorithmic bias associated with GDP 5.0. It highlights the policy relevance of the framework through stylized applications in monetary, fiscal, and environmental domains. Aligning measurement practices with the complexities of the twenty-first century, GDP 5.0 proposes a pathway toward more responsive, inclusive, and sustainable economic governance. Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) reste la principale mesure de la performance économique, pourtant sa nature agrégée, nationale et exclusivement axée sur le marché occulte des dimensions cruciales telles que la prospérité, l'équité et la durabilité environnementale. S'appuyant sur les récentes avancées en science des données et sur la littérature croissante consacrée au « au-delà du PIB », cet article plaide en faveur d'un changement générationnel dans la mesure économique, baptisé « PIB 5.0 ». Cette nouvelle approche du PIB intègre des microdonnées géolocalisées à haute fréquence et des méthodes d'intelligence artificielle afin de générer des tableaux de bord en temps réel sur l'activité économique, le bien-être social et les limites planétaires. Le cadre adopte une approche inductive et ascendante, combinant les transactions au niveau des entreprises, l'imagerie satellite, les données des capteurs et les indicateurs sociaux. Ces divers flux de données sont fusionnés à l'aide de techniques d'apprentissage automatique explicables afin de construire des indices composites qui reflètent l'hétérogénéité régionale et internalisent les externalités négatives. L'article examine les fondements méthodologiques, les défis en matière de gouvernance et les garde-fous contre les biais algorithmiques associés au PIB 5.0. Il met en évidence la pertinence politique du cadre à travers des applications schématiques dans les domaines monétaires, fiscaux et environnementaux. En alignant les pratiques de mesure sur les complexités du XXIe siècle, le PIB 5.0 propose une voie vers une gouvernance économique plus réactive, inclusive et durable.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Warin & Sarah Elimam, 2025. "GDP 5.0: Real-Time, Micro-Founded and Sustainable Metrics for Beyond-GDP Economic Assessment," CIRANO Working Papers 2025s-20, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2025s-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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