IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cir/circah/2020pe-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Incertitude et effets macroéconomiques : mise à jour dans le contexte de la pandémie COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Moran
  • Adam Abdel Kader Touré
  • Dalibor Stevanovic

Abstract

La mesure d'incertitude macroéconomique canadienne développée dans le rapport CIRANO « Incertitude macroéconomique canadienne : mesure, évaluation et effets sur l'investissement » (Moran, Stevanovic et Touré, 2019) est mise à jour dans le contexte des événements liés à la pandémie COVID-19. Les données disponibles les plus récentes montrent que l'incertitude macroéconomique a brusquement augmenté depuis le début de 2020 et affiche présentement son niveau le plus élevé depuis les 40 dernières années. Notre modèle statistique suggère qu'un choc de cette ampleur aura des effets négatifs importants sur l'investissement et l'activité économique canadienne.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Moran & Adam Abdel Kader Touré & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "Incertitude et effets macroéconomiques : mise à jour dans le contexte de la pandémie COVID-19," CIRANO Papers 2020pe-33, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:circah:2020pe-33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2020PE-33.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Fortin‐Gagnon & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "A large Canadian database for macroeconomic analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1799-1833, November.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2022. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 596-612.
    2. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
    4. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    5. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aimé Nono & Imad Rherrad, 2018. "Forecasting with Many Predictors: How Useful are National and International Confidence Data?," Cahiers de recherche 1814, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    7. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Freund, Lukas B. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2021. "Volatile hiring: uncertainty in search and matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-18.
    9. George ANTON, 2021. "The Impact Of Economic Uncertainty On Household Consumption Choices. Evidence From Europe," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 15(1), pages 622-628, November.
    10. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    11. Nam, Eun-Young & Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty shocks and households’ consumption choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2023. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 117-137, December.
    13. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Kader Touré, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the COVID‐19 pandemic: Measure and impacts on the Canadian economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 379-405, February.
    14. Shah, Syed Faisal & Albaity, Mohamed, 2022. "The role of trust, investor sentiment, and uncertainty on bank stock return performance: Evidence from the MENA region," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    15. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2023. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 117-137, December.
    16. Cho, Dooyeon & Kim, Husang, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2022. "The role of domestic and foreign economic uncertainties in determining the foreign exchange rates: an extended monetary approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 666-677, October.
    18. Li, Xiang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Montserrat Guillen & Miguel Santolino & Xenxo Vidal-Llana, 2022. ""Inequality of subjective economic uncertainty and individual economic prospects in the pandemic period"," IREA Working Papers 202202, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2022.
    20. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:circah:2020pe-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciranca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.