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Sovereign Spread in Emerging Markets: A Principal Component Analysis

  • Mónica Fuentes
  • Sergio Godoy

We investigates the behavior of daily bond stripped spreads on sovereign bonds for 18 emerging market economies located in Asia, East Europe and Latin America from September 1997 to November 2002. In the emerging market world, financial crises are seen more often than not. An obvious question is whether these events, each associated with a particular country, spread to other countries, regardless of economic fundamentals at that specific point in time. That is, if the ‘simultaneous’ movements that we observe in spreads across emerging market economies are linked to economic fundamentals. We find that the correlation across countries is regionally dominated. Spreads from sovereigns with high savings rates, low indebtedness and good credit ratings are less likely to co-move with spreads where financial crises are being originated.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 333.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:333
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  1. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang K. & Villa, Christophe, 2001. "The dynamics of implied volatilities: A common principal components approach," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,38, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2008. "A stochastic variance factor model for large datasets and an application to S&P data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 130-134, July.
  3. Fifield, S G M & Power, D M & Sinclair, C D, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors and Share Returns: An Analysis Using Emerging Market Data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 51-62, January.
  4. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2006. "Volatility co-movements between emerging sovereign bonds: Is there segmentation between geographical areas?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 245-263, March.
  5. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1999. "Have Exchange Rates Become More Closely Tied? Evidence from a New Multivariate GARCH Model," Discussion Paper 1999-10, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Abad, Pilar & Novales, Alfonso, 2005. "An error correction factor model of term structure slopes in international swap markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 229-254, July.
  7. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
  8. Valentín Délano & Jorge Selaive, 2005. "Spreads Soberanos: Una Aproximación Factorial," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 309, Central Bank of Chile.
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