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The Effects of Nominal and Real Shocks on the Chilean Real Exchange Rate During the Nineties

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  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Chilean real exchange rate (RER) during the nineties. Different estimations indicate that nominal disturbances account for about 30% of the variance of the forecast error of the RER in the short run. Positive nominal shocks produce an appreciation of RER that lasts five months. The effect of real shocks depends on the nature of the shocks. A positive productivity shock appreciates the real exchange rate while a positive expenditure shock causes a real depreciation of the currency. The historical decomposition of the RER does not show periods of large misalignment.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Soto, 2003. "The Effects of Nominal and Real Shocks on the Chilean Real Exchange Rate During the Nineties," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 220, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    3. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    4. Rodrigo Valdés, 1998. "Efectos de la Política Monetaria en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 97-125.
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    Cited by:

    1. von Furstenberg, George M., 2006. "Mexico versus Canada: Stability benefits from making common currency with USD?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-78, March.
    2. Agnieszka Stazka, 2006. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe – Temporary or Permanent?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1876, CESifo Group Munich.

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