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In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA's Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Martinez-Bravo

    (CEMFI BREAD, CEPR)

  • Andreas Stegmann

    (University of Warwick and CAGE)

Abstract

In July 2011, the Pakistani public learnt that the CIA had used a vaccination campaign as cover to capture Osama Bin Laden. The Taliban leveraged on this information and launched an anti-vaccine propaganda campaign to discredit vaccines and vaccination workers. We evaluate the effects of these events on immunization by implementing a Difference-in-Differences strategy across cohorts and districts. We find that vaccination rates declined 12 to 20% per standard deviation in support for Islamist parties. These results suggest that information discrediting vaccination campaigns can negatively affect trust in health services and demand for immunization.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Martinez-Bravo & Andreas Stegmann, 2021. "In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA's Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 544, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:544
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp544.2021.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2021. "When Reality Bites: Local Deaths and Vaccine Take-Up," GLO Discussion Paper Series 999, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Shehryar Munir & Farah Said & Umar Taj & Maida Zafar, 2022. "Digital 'nudges' to increase childhood vaccination compliance: Evidence from Pakistan," Papers 2209.06624, arXiv.org.
    8. Borisova, Ekaterina & Gründler, Klaus & Hackenberger, Armin & Harter, Anina & Potrafke, Niklas & Schoors, Koen, 2023. "Crisis experience and the deep roots of COVID-19 vaccination preferences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Wim Naudé & Lelys Ernesto Amorós & Tilman Brück, 2023. "State-Based Conflict and Entrepreneurship – Empirical Evidence," HiCN Working Papers 384, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Isaac Mbiti & Danila Serra, 2022. "Health workers’ behavior, patient reporting and reputational concerns: lab-in-the-field experimental evidence from Kenya," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(2), pages 514-556, April.
    11. Athias, Laure & Macina, Moudo, 2020. "The Legacy of the Slave Trade: Towards Identifying the Causal Impact of Mistrust in Medicine on Demand for Vaccination in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 102968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Maureen Ayikoru, & Cole, Jennifer & Dodds, Klaus & Atcero, Milburga & Bada, Joseph K. & Petrikova, Ivica & Worodria, William, 2023. "Addressing vaccine concerns through the spectrum of vaccine acceptance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    13. Galdikiene, Laura & Jaraite, Jurate & Kajackaite, Agne, 2022. "Trust and vaccination intentions: Evidence from Lithuania during the COVID-19 pandemic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 17(11), pages 1-1.
    14. Belmonte, A & Pickard, H, 2022. "Safe at Last? LATE Effects of a Mass Immunization Campaign on Households’ Economic Insecurity," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 604, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Ricardo Maertens & Alessandro Tarozzi & Kazi Matin Ahmed & Alexander van Geen, 2018. "Demand for Information on Environmental Health Risk, Mode of Delivery, and Behavioral Change: Evidence from Sonargaon, Bangladesh," Working Papers id:12934, eSocialSciences.
    16. Crosignani, Matteo & Macchiavelli, Marco & Silva, André F., 2023. "Pirates without borders: The propagation of cyberattacks through firms’ supply chains," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 432-448.
    17. Fenske, James & Wang, Shizhuo, 2023. "Tradition and mortality: Evidence from twin infanticide in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    18. , 2023. "The Political Consequences of Vaccines: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Eligibility Rules," Working Papers 953, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Timothy Besley & Sacha Dray, 2022. "Trust as state capacity: The political economy of compliance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Friedman, Willa & Keats, Anthony & Mutua, Martin Kavao, 2022. "Disruptions to healthcare quality and early child health outcomes: Evidence from health-worker strikes in Kenya," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    21. Charlotte Pelras & Andrea Renk, 2021. "Sterilizations and immunization in India: The Emergency experience (1975-1977)," DeFiPP Working Papers 2105, University of Namur, Development Finance and Public Policies.
    22. Charlotte Pelras & Andrea Renk, 2022. "When Sterilizations Lower Immunizations: The Emergency Experience in India (1975-77)," DeFiPP Working Papers 2206, University of Namur, Development Finance and Public Policies.
    23. Pelras, Charlotte & Renk, Andréa, 2023. "When sterilizations lower immunizations: The Emergency experience in India (1975–77)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    24. Antonella Bandiera & Lelys Dinarte-Diaz & Juan Miguel Jimenez & Sandra V. Rozo & Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2023. "Rebel Governance and Development: The Persistent Effects of Distrust in El Salvador," HiCN Working Papers 383, Households in Conflict Network.
    25. Alice Dominici and Lisen Arnheim Dahlström, 2023. "Targeting vaccine information framing to recipients’ education: a randomized trial," Economics Working Papers EUI ECO 2023/02, European University Institute.

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    Keywords

    JEL Classification:;

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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