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In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA’s Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan

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  • Monica Martinez-Bravo
  • Andreas Stegmann

Abstract

In July 2011, the Pakistani public learnt that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had used a vaccination campaign as cover to capture Osama Bin Laden. The Taliban leveraged on this information and launched an anti-vaccine propaganda campaign to discredit vaccines and vaccination workers. We evaluate the effects of these events on immunization by implementing a difference-in-differences strategy across cohorts and districts. We find that vaccination rates declined between 23% and 39% in districts in the 90th percentile of Islamist support relative to those in the 10th percentile. These results suggest that information discrediting vaccination campaigns can negatively affect trust in health services and demand for immunization.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Martinez-Bravo & Andreas Stegmann, 2022. "In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA’s Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 150-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:20:y:2022:i:1:p:150-186.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvab018
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    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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