IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfi/fseres/cf624.html

Daily Inflation Expectations in Japan around the Time of Regime Change

Author

Listed:
  • Taisuke Nakata

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Yoshiyuki Nakazono

    (Yokohama City University)

  • Kento Tango

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)

Abstract

We analyze how household inflation expectations respond to macroeconomic news using a daily survey in Japan in 2023-24, around the transition from a low- to high-inflation regime. The responses of inflation expectations vary widely across news events. responses of inflation expectations to news are sometimes correlated with surprise components of the news implied by private-sector inflation forecasts or financial markets. Long-run inflation expectations are no less responsive to inflation data releases—but are less responsive to monetary policy announcements—than short-run inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Taisuke Nakata & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kento Tango, 2026. "Daily Inflation Expectations in Japan around the Time of Regime Change," CARF F-Series CARF-F-624, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf624
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/F624.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
    2. Brent Bundick & A. Lee Smith, 2025. "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(5), pages 1310-1326, September.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    4. Niklas Kroner, 2025. "How Markets Process Macro News: The Importance of Investor Attention," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Beechey, Meredith J. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 535-544, May.
    6. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    7. Junichi Kikuchi & Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2023. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Microdata Evidence from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1609-1632, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    3. Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    5. Alexandra Piller & Marc Schranz & Larissa Schwaller, 2025. "Using Natural Language Processing to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 25.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Tim Munday & James Brookes, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 944, Bank of England.
    7. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    8. Bobasu, Alina & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Ambrocio, Gene & Auer, Simone & Bonfim, Diana & Bottero, Margherita & Brázdik, František & Buss, Ginters & Byrne, David & Casalis, André , 2025. "Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks," Occasional Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
    9. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    10. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Jessica Piccolo & Alessia Russo & Eleonora Granziera & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2025. "Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0316, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    12. Julien Pinter & Evžen Kočenda, 2025. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(7), pages 1793-1842, October.
    13. Abhinava Tripathi & Charu Vadhava & Ravi Raushan Jha, 2026. "Pricing efficiency of European carbon futures market during the COVID-19 pandemic," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 22-61, February.
    14. Boissay, Frederic & Collard, Fabrice & Manea, Cristina & Shapiro, Adam, 2023. "Monetary Tightening, Inflation Drivers and Financial Stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 18694, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Jin, Keyu, 2021. "The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    17. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2021. "Jackson Hole 2021 - Fiscal Policy and Uneven Shocks," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    18. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Carboni, Giacomo & Ellison, Martin, 2022. "Preferred Habitat and Monetary Policy Through the Looking-Glass," CEPR Discussion Papers 17394, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    20. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2016. "The High Frequency Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements in the Brazilian Futures Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/catokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.