IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_6343.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Policy and Economic Growth: Does It Really Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Donatella Baiardi
  • Paola Profeta
  • Riccardo Puglisi
  • Simona Scabrosetti

Abstract

We challenge the “OECD view” (Arnold et al. 2011) according to which a shift from direct to indirect taxation is associated with higher long-run economic growth. We study the relationships between per capita GDP, overall tax revenue and tax composition (in particular direct vs. indirect taxation). We can replicate the findings in Arnold et al. when focusing on the same sample of countries and time period, but not when adopting more cautious estimates of the standard errors. The results are not robust to adding countries and/or extending the time period under consideration. They also differ in the short- and long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Donatella Baiardi & Paola Profeta & Riccardo Puglisi & Simona Scabrosetti, 2017. "Tax Policy and Economic Growth: Does It Really Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6343, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6343
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6343.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xing, Jing, 2012. "Tax structure and growth: How robust is the empirical evidence?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 379-382.
    2. Hettich, W. & Winer, S.L., 1993. "The Political Economy of Taxation," Papers 8, Carleton - Business Administration.
    3. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2017. "Nonlinear Effects of Taxation on Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 265-291.
    5. Bernardi, LUIGI, 2013. "Recent findings regarding the shift from direct to indirect taxation in the EA-17," MPRA Paper 47877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    7. Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, 2012. "Tax Composition and Growth: A Broad Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2012/257, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    9. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    10. Jens Matthias Arnold, 2008. "Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 643, OECD Publishing.
    11. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    12. Jan Ditzen, 2018. "Estimating dynamic common-correlated effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(3), pages 585-617, September.
    13. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2014. "The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1217-1255, November.
    14. Micael Castanheira & Gaëtan Nicodème & Paola Profeta, 2012. "On the political economics of tax reforms: survey and empirical assessment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 598-624, August.
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    16. Jens Matthias Arnold & Bert Brys & Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Cyrille Schwellnus & Laura Vartia, 2011. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 59-80, February.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    18. Jan Ditzen, 2016. "xtdcce2: Estimating dynamic common correlated effects in Stata," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2016 08, Stata Users Group.
    19. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    20. Castanheira, Micael & Profeta, Paola & Nicodème, Gaëtan, 2011. "On the political economics of tax reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 8507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Micael Castanheira & Gaëtan Nicodème & Paola Profeta, 2012. "On the political economics of tax reforms: survey and empirical assessment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 598-624, August.
    22. Silvestro Sanzo & Mariano Bella & Giovanni Graziano, 2017. "Tax Structure and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegrated VAR Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 239-253, July.
    23. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    24. Jan Ditzen, 2016. "xtdcce: Estimating Dynamic Common Correlated Effects in Stata," SEEC Discussion Papers 1601, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    25. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Milena Mathé & Gaetan Nicodeme & Savino Rua, 2015. "Tax shifts," Taxation Papers 59, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    2. Kyle McNabb, 2016. "Tax structures and economic growth: New evidence from the Government Revenue Dataset," WIDER Working Paper Series 148, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Kyle McNabb, 2016. "Tax structures and economic growth: New evidence from the Government Revenue Dataset," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-148, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 3-40, January.
    5. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
    6. Paola Profeta & Simona Scabrosetti, 2017. "The Political Economy of Taxation in Europe," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 220(1), pages 139-172, March.
    7. Silvestro Sanzo & Mariano Bella & Giovanni Graziano, 2017. "Tax Structure and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegrated VAR Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 239-253, July.
    8. Marco Alfò & Lorenzo Carbonari & Giovanni Trovato, 2020. "On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: an Empirical Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 480, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2020.
    9. Åsa Johansson, 2016. "Public Finance, Economic Growth and Inequality: A Survey of the Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1346, OECD Publishing.
    10. Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2021. "The value-added tax and growth: design matters," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1211-1241, October.
    11. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    12. Colin Davis & Ken‐ichi Hashimoto, 2018. "Corporate Tax Policy And Industry Location With Fully Endogenous Productivity Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1136-1148, April.
    13. José Alves, 2021. "The Sinful Side of Taxation: Is it Possible to Satisfy the Government Hunger for Revenues While Promoting Economic Growth?," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 237(2), pages 85-109, June.
    14. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Hindriks, Jean & Serse, Valerio, 2022. "The incidence of VAT reforms in electricity markets: Evidence from Belgium," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Florian Buhlmann & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Peichl, 2018. "Tax refunds and income manipulation: evidence from the EITC," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1490-1518, December.
    18. Andrea Filippetti & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Decentralization and economic growth reconsidered: The role of regional authority," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(8), pages 1793-1824, December.
    19. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2018. "Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 393-418, February.
    20. Andre Gbato, 2017. "Impact of Taxation on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Evidence Based on a New Data Set," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(11), pages 173-193, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; taxation; tax mix; OECD countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • P50 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.