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Social Unrest in the Wake of IMF Structural Adjustment Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Caleb Stroup
  • Benjamin Zissimos

Abstract

This paper proposes an answer to the question of why social unrest sometimes occurs in the wake of an IMF Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). Under certain circumstances, partly determined by a country’s comparative advantage, a nation’s elite may have an incentive to make transfers to the rest of society through government employment in order to quell social unrest. But under an SAP, the elite are constrained from making such transfers and consequently social unrest may arise. The paper proposes a framework from which a prediction can be made about the circumstances under which social unrest can be expected to occur. It then takes this prediction to the data and finds empirical support for it.

Suggested Citation

  • Caleb Stroup & Benjamin Zissimos, 2013. "Social Unrest in the Wake of IMF Structural Adjustment Programs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4211, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4211
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4211.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeroen Hinloopen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "Empirical relevance of the Hillman condition for revealed comparative advantage: 10 stylized facts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2313-2328.
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    3. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    4. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
    5. Kilby, Christopher, 2009. "The political economy of conditionality: An empirical analysis of World Bank loan disbursements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 51-61, May.
    6. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
    7. Hartzell, Caroline A. & Hoddie, Matthew & Bauer, Molly, 2010. "Economic Liberalization via IMF Structural Adjustment: Sowing the Seeds of Civil War?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(02), pages 339-356, April.
    8. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 173-186.
    9. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2003. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," International Finance 0310004, EconWPA, revised 08 Jan 2004.
    10. Easterly, William, 2005. "What did structural adjustment adjust?: The association of policies and growth with repeated IMF and World Bank adjustment loans," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-22, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:revint:v:12:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11558-016-9250-3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    institutions; International Monetary Fund (IMF); social unrest; structural adjustment; trade integration;

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P14 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Property Rights

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