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The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

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  • Graham Bird
  • Dane Rowlands

Abstract

In recent years, the International Monetary Fund has seen a spate of critical analyses of its lending activities. It has even been suggested that politics influences the allocation of IMF lending with powerful industrialized countries being able to use Fund lending to further their own ambitions. We ask simple questions? Why did some countries borrow from the Fund when our models predicted that they would not? Why did other countries not borrow when our models predicted that they would? We resort to qualitative analysis of the individual cases to see whether we can retrospectively and reasonably explain our prediction failures.

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  • Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 173-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:173-186
    DOI: 10.1080/1384128021000066116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graham Bird, 1988. "An Analysis of Drawings on the International Monetary Fund by Developing Countries," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Managing Global Money, chapter 6, pages 104-112, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
    3. Cornelius, Peter, 1987. "The demand for IMF credits by Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-102.
    4. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
    5. Tony Killick & Moazzam Malik & Marcus Manuel, 1992. "What Can We Know About the Effects of IMF Programmes?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 575-598, September.
    6. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
    7. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Graham Bird, 2007. "The Imf: A Bird'S Eye View Of Its Role And Operations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 683-745, September.
    2. Easterly, William, 2005. "What did structural adjustment adjust?: The association of policies and growth with repeated IMF and World Bank adjustment loans," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Butkiewicz, James L. & Yanikkaya, Halit, 2005. "The Effects of IMF and World Bank Lending on Long-Run Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 371-391, March.
    4. Ben Zissimos & Caleb Stroup, 2013. "Social Unrest in the Wake of IMF Structural Adjustment Programs," Working Papers 13-04, Davidson College, Department of Economics.
    5. Arpac, Ozlem & Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex, 2008. "Stop Interrupting: An Empirical Analysis of the Implementation of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1493-1513, September.
    6. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2010. "The Episodic and Unpredictable Nature of IMF Lending: An Empirical Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1280-1301, October.
    7. Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?," IMF Working Papers 2006/239, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2007/152, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Easterly, William, 2006. "An identity crisis? Examining IMF financial programming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 964-980, June.

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