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The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

  • Graham Bird
  • Dane Rowlands

In recent years, the International Monetary Fund has seen a spate of critical analyses of its lending activities. It has even been suggested that politics influences the allocation of IMF lending with powerful industrialized countries being able to use Fund lending to further their own ambitions. We ask simple questions? Why did some countries borrow from the Fund when our models predicted that they would not? Why did other countries not borrow when our models predicted that they would? We resort to qualitative analysis of the individual cases to see whether we can retrospectively and reasonably explain our prediction failures.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 173-186

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:173-186
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  1. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
  2. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  3. Bird, Graham & Orme, Timothy, 1981. "An analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 563-568, June.
  4. Tony Killick & Moazzam Malik & Marcus Manuel, 1992. "What Can We Know About the Effects of IMF Programmes?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 575-598, 09.
  5. Cornelius, Peter, 1987. "The demand for IMF credits by Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-102.
  6. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  7. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
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