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Persistence in Remittances: Evidence from Africa and Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Rodrigo Asturias
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • Carlos Ramirez

Abstract

This paper uses fractional integration methods to estimate the degree of persistence of annual real remittances per capita to 21 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) and 12 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries using data from World Bank World Development Indicators covering the period from 1980 to 2024. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across both regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, 5 (Kenya, Senegal, Benin, South Africa and Cameroon) of 21 countries show statistically significant mean reversion, whilst three others (Somalia, Côte d’Ivoire and Tunisia) display explosive persistence. In Latin America and the Caribbean, only the Dominican Republic and Panama display mean reversion. These findings shed light on whether shocks have transitory or permanent effects and therefore have crucial implications for the design of appropriate stabilization and development policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Rodrigo Asturias & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Ramirez, 2026. "Persistence in Remittances: Evidence from Africa and Latin America," CESifo Working Paper Series 12840, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12840
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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