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The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s

Author

Listed:
  • Meltem N. Daysal
  • Camille Fredrickson
  • Ida Lykke Kristiansen
  • Mircea Trandafir
  • Jonathan Zhang
  • N. Meltem Daysal

Abstract

We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.

Suggested Citation

  • Meltem N. Daysal & Camille Fredrickson & Ida Lykke Kristiansen & Mircea Trandafir & Jonathan Zhang & N. Meltem Daysal, 2026. "The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s," CESifo Working Paper Series 12810, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12810
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoine Bertheau & Edoardo Maria Acabbi & Cristina Barceló & Andreas Gulyas & Stefano Lombardi & Raffaele Saggio, 2023. "The Unequal Consequences of Job Loss across Countries," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 393-408, September.
    2. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Jörg Heining, 2023. "The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(5), pages 1208-1254, May.
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    4. Kosali Simon & Coady Wing & Sih-Ting Cai & Daniel Sacks, 2025. "Do GLP-1 medications pay for themselves?," Economics Virtual Symposium 2025 06, Stata Users Group.
    5. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    6. Melvin Stephens Jr. & Desmond Toohey, 2022. "The Impact of Health on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Large-Scale Health Experiment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 367-399, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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