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“Us vs Them”: Salient Conflict and Belief Polarization

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Frederik Schwerter
  • Guido Tabellini

Abstract

In an online experiment with a representative US sample (N=12,960) we show that increasing the salience of an economic or cultural conflict without providing any news boosts disagreement on a range of political issues by 8-35%. The data support two key predictions of the Bonomi et al. (2021) identity theory of political beliefs. First, polarization amplifies – through stereotypes – latent disagreement among the economic or cultural groups standing in salient conflict. Second, there is belief realignment away from no-longer salient groups, causing some people to move across the conservative-progressive divide. These results can illuminate real-world political conflicts and propaganda.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Gennaioli & Frederik Schwerter & Guido Tabellini, 2026. "“Us vs Them”: Salient Conflict and Belief Polarization," CESifo Working Paper Series 12547, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12547
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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