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Clean Hydrogen Pathways: Expert Projections from Australia and Implications for the World

Author

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  • Zarah Thiel
  • Reza Fazeli
  • Frank Jotzo
  • Andreas Löschel

Abstract

Hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources or with carbon capture and storage is an important pillar for reducing global emissions. Using structured interviews, we collect and analyze expectations of 47 industry, science, and government experts on hydrogen pathways and policy needs in Australia. A detailed picture emerges of expectations for how hydrogen will be produced, traded, or used domestically, including projections of future production cost and quantities. Experts also shared views on key obstacles and factors that could support hydrogen deployment. While a large majority anticipates a transition to renewable hydrogen by 2050, there are some notable divergences in expectations, including among different stakeholder groups and levels of experience. For instance, carbon capture and storage pathways remain contested. While the experts were largely optimistic that technical and environmental barriers could be overcome, the main policy gaps identified relate to regulatory and market uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Zarah Thiel & Reza Fazeli & Frank Jotzo & Andreas Löschel, 2025. "Clean Hydrogen Pathways: Expert Projections from Australia and Implications for the World," CESifo Working Paper Series 12161, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryan Wiser & Joseph Rand & Joachim Seel & Philipp Beiter & Erin Baker & Eric Lantz & Patrick Gilman, 2021. "Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 555-565, May.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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