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Transparency as Trade Policy: Evidence from Notification Timing in TBTs

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  • Irene Iodice

Abstract

This paper quantifies the value of timely WTO notifications for Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs). Using French firm-level export data, I find that advance notice halves the negative impact of TBTs on export participation, by reducing temporary exits and supporting entry, particularly among small and medium-sized firms. Exploiting variation in notification delays, I show that this effect operates by reducing uncertainty about compliance costs, rather than by giving firms more time to adjust. A theoretical framework with firm heterogeneity and trade policy uncertainty formalizes this mechanism: notification lowers uncertainty, reducing firms’ incentives to delay or suspend exports. The quantitative importance of this effect is equivalent to avoiding a tariff increase of up to 28 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Irene Iodice, 2025. "Transparency as Trade Policy: Evidence from Notification Timing in TBTs," CESifo Working Paper Series 12015, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12015
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12015.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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