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Will New Driving Technologies Change the Value of Public Transportation Investments?

Author

Listed:
  • Imke Reimers
  • Benjamin Reed Shiller
  • Benjamin R. Shiller

Abstract

We analyze how self-driving vehicles (SDVs) influence commuter behavior and returns to long-lived public transit investments. Using a commuting mode model estimated on detailed home and work location data from Greater Boston, we simulate the widespread entry of SDVs, which offer passive travel similar to transit but use existing road networks. We find that SDVs increase vehicle miles by 40% while decreasing public transit use by about 10%. Transit improvements continue to moderately boost revenues and lower miles driven, but their effects on mileage are small compared to SDVs. These findings highlight planning challenges posed by the emergence of SDVs.

Suggested Citation

  • Imke Reimers & Benjamin Reed Shiller & Benjamin R. Shiller, 2025. "Will New Driving Technologies Change the Value of Public Transportation Investments?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11956, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11956
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11956.pdf
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