IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11826.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the Effect of China’s 2013 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz Sager

Abstract

In 2013, China introduced the ambitious Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) targeting ambient fine particle (PM2.5) pollution. Using panel data covering 239 countries and territories worldwide, from 2000 to 2019, I provide quasi-experimental estimates of nationwide reductions in PM2.5 exposure achieved since 2013. I find that the APPCAP lowered PM2.5 exposure of the average Chinese resident in 2019 by over 20%, reducing PM2.5-related deaths by between 220 and 280 thousand depending on estimation strategy. Monetizing the mortality reductions with recent values of statistical life suggests total benefits of up to 1 trillion Renminbi or 1% of Gross Domestic Output.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Sager, 2025. "Estimating the Effect of China’s 2013 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan," CESifo Working Paper Series 11826, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11826
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11826.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
    2. Sager, Lutz, 2025. "Global air quality inequality over 2000–2020," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    4. Peng, Jiachao & Xiao, Jianzhong & Zhang, Lian & Wang, Teng, 2020. "The impact of China's ‘Atmosphere Ten Articles’ policy on total factor productivity of energy exploitation: Empirical evidence using synthetic control methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. James K. Hammitt & Fangli Geng & Xiaoqi Guo & Chris P. Nielsen, 2019. "Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 167-186, June.
    7. Panle Jia Barwick & Shanjun Li & Liguo Lin & Eric Yongchen Zou, 2024. "From Fog to Smog: The Value of Pollution Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1338-1381, May.
    8. Cheung, Chun Wai & He, Guojun & Pan, Yuhang, 2020. "Mitigating the air pollution effect? The remarkable decline in the pollution-mortality relationship in Hong Kong," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Haotian Zhang & Xiumei Sun & Xueyang Wang & Su Yan, 2022. "Winning the Blue Sky Defense War: Assessing Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Based on Synthetic Control Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Dan Yin & Brett A. Bryan, 2020. "Stronger policy required to substantially reduce deaths from PM2.5 pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    12. Yu, Yunjiang & Dai, Chun & Wei, Yigang & Ren, Huiming & Zhou, Jiawen, 2022. "Air pollution prevention and control action plan substantially reduced PM2.5 concentration in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    14. Erin E. McDuffie & Randall V. Martin & Joseph V. Spadaro & Richard Burnett & Steven J. Smith & Patrick O’Rourke & Melanie S. Hammer & Aaron Donkelaar & Liam Bindle & Viral Shah & Lyatt Jaeglé & Gan Lu, 2021. "Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Alberto Abadie & Jérémy L’Hour, 2021. "A Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1817-1834, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    2. Stefano, Roberta di & Mellace, Giovanni, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Discussion Papers on Economics 14/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    3. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    4. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    5. Clair, Travis St., 2024. "The fiscal effects of immigration on local governments: Revisiting the Mariel Boatlift," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Alberto Abadie & Jinglong Zhao, 2021. "Synthetic Controls for Experimental Design," Papers 2108.02196, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    7. Justin C. Wiltshire, 2023. "Walmart Supercenters and Monopsony Power: How A Large, Low-Wage Employer Impacts Local Labor Markets," Department Discussion Papers 2304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    8. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2023. "Years of life lost to revolution and war in Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 2061-2103, November.
    9. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Populist Constitutional Backsliding and Judicial Independence: Evidence from Turkiye," Papers 2410.02439, arXiv.org.
    10. Li, Xingyu & Shen, Yan & Zhou, Qiankun, 2024. "Confidence intervals of treatment effects in panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    11. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    12. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    14. Robert Messerle & Jonas Schreyögg, 2024. "Country-level effects of diagnosis-related groups: evidence from Germany’s comprehensive reform of hospital payments," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(6), pages 1013-1030, August.
    15. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    16. Robert Kraemer & Jonne Lehtimäki, 2024. "Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1112-1157, August.
    17. Marisa Cameron & Bryan C. McCannon & Katherine Starr, 2023. "AACSB accreditation and student demand," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(2), pages 317-340, October.
    18. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
    19. Nathan, Max & Overman, Henry & Riom, Capucine & Sanchez-Vidal, Maria, 2024. "Multipliers from a Major Public Sector Relocation: The BBC Moves to Salford," IZA Discussion Papers 17337, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    air pollution; health; mortality; regulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11826. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.