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Earthquakes and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Japan

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • Leyre Muñoz

Abstract

This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of the number of earthquakes (in total and also classified by magnitude) and stock market log prices and returns in the case of Japan over the period from January 2009 to February 2024 using fractional integration methods. Their linkages are then investigated by means of regression analysis. The results indicate that the former variable exhibits short-memory, I(0) behaviour. By contrast, stock market prices appear to be an I(d), fractional integration process, with d less than 1. Since the orders of integration of the two variables are different, we treat seismic events as exogenous in the context of a regression model with stock returns. The findings suggest that earthquakes have a statistically significant, though relatively small, negative impact on the Nikkei 225 index. More specifically, there exists a negative relationship between the magnitude and number of earthquakes and monthly stock returns. This suggests that seismic activity creates uncertainty in the market, which in turn affects its performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Leyre Muñoz, 2025. "Earthquakes and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 11822, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
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    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A Gil-Alana & Olaoluwa Simon Yaya, 2022. "Modeling persistence and non-linearities in the US treasury 10-year bond yields," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1221-1229.
    6. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    7. Shinhua Liu, 2008. "Index Futures and Predictability of the Underlying Stocks’ Returns: The Case of the Nikkei 225," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 77-91, August.
    8. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market prices; earthquakes; Japan; persistence; fractional integration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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