IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11754.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Destabilizing the Corrupt: US Sanctions and Their Conflict-Inducing Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
  • Mohamad Alkurdi Albarawi

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on internal instability and conflict using a global sample. Our analysis, which includes cross-country and panel data from over 120 countries between 1996 and 2022, shows that economic sanctions increase the risk of internal conflict and political instability, but only in countries with high levels of public corruption. In contrast, sanctions have no significant effect on political stability in countries with lower levels of corruption. These results are robust across various model specifications, control variables, competing moderator, and alternative indicators of conflict. Our findings suggest that countries can strengthen their resilience to external financial pressures during sanctions by improving their control of corruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mohamad Alkurdi Albarawi, 2025. "Destabilizing the Corrupt: US Sanctions and Their Conflict-Inducing Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 11754, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11754.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ebeke, Christian & Omgba, Luc Désiré & Laajaj, Rachid, 2015. "Oil, governance and the (mis)allocation of talent in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 126-141.
    2. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2024. "The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 24-43, January.
    3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    4. Dario Laudati & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2023. "Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 271-294, April.
    5. Sanjeev Gupta & Hamid Davoodi & Rosa Alonso-Terme, 2002. "Does corruption affect income inequality and poverty?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 23-45, March.
    6. Gupta, Sanjeev & de Mello, Luiz & Sharan, Raju, 2001. "Corruption and military spending," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 749-777, November.
    7. Barakat, Bilal & Urdal, Henrik, 2009. "Breaking the waves ? does education mediate the relationship between youth bulges and political violence ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5114, The World Bank.
    8. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    9. Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(1), pages 26-58, March.
    10. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "Fighting corruption in Africa: do existing corruption‐control levels matter?," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 36-52, April.
    12. Leonie Kaphahn & Louis Brennan, 2017. "Reassessing the risk conditions for political instability in the light of the Arab Spring," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1497-1515, November.
    13. James D. Fearon, 2005. "Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 483-507, August.
    14. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2018. "Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 186-205.
    15. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June.
    16. Nye, J. S., 1967. "Corruption and Political Development: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 417-427, June.
    17. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01112661 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sajjad F. Dizaji & Mohammad R. Farzanegan, 2021. "Do Sanctions Constrain Military Spending of Iran?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 125-150, February.
    19. Frederick Solt, 2016. "The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1267-1281, November.
    20. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2023. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Target Countries: A Review of the Empirical Evidence," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 24(03), pages 05-09, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2023. "Does Oil Corrupt? Evidence from a Multivariate VAR in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202321, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Stefan Witthuhn, 2014. "Demographic Transition and Political Stability: Does Corruption Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5133, CESifo.
    3. Cooray, Arusha & Dzhumashev, Ratbek & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "How Does Corruption Affect Public Debt? An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 115-127.
    4. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2018. "Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 186-205.
    5. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    6. Kjetil Bjorvatn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Resource Rents, Power, and Political Stability," CESifo Working Paper Series 4727, CESifo.
    7. Alfredo Monte & Luca Pennacchio, 2020. "Corruption, Government Expenditure and Public Debt in OECD Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 739-771, December.
    8. Arvind K. Jain, 2011. "Corruption: Theory, Evidence and Policy," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(2), pages 3-9, 07.
    9. Vusal Musayev, 2016. "Externalities in Military Spending and Growth: The Role of Natural Resources as a Channel through Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 378-391, June.
    10. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rohner, Dominic, 2012. "War and natural resource exploitation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1714-1729.
    11. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gutmann, Jerg, 2024. "International Sanctions and Internal Conflict: The Case of Iran," ILE Working Paper Series 82, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    12. Lindsey Carson & Mariana Mota Prado, 2014. "Mapping Corruption and its Institutional Determinants in Brazil," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series iriba_wp08, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    13. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2017. "The impact of oil rents on military spending: Does corruption matter?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168157, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Bodea, Cristina & Higashijima, Masaaki & Singh, Raju Jan, 2016. "Oil and Civil Conflict: Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Ly Slesman & Ali Kole & Rizgar Abdlkarim Abdlaziz & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2024. "Taming the Tides of Internal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Political Institutions and Natural Resources," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 16(2), pages 188-211, May.
    16. Gossel, Sean Joss, 2018. "FDI, democracy and corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 647-662.
    17. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W., 2020. "The path from ethnic inequality to development: The intermediary role of institutional quality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Andrew Hodge & Sriram Shankar & D. S. Prasada Rao & Alan Duhs, 2011. "Exploring the Links Between Corruption and Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 474-490, August.
    19. Fisayo Fagbemi & Tolulope Temilola Osinubi & Geraldine Ejiaka Nzeribe & Taofik Olatunji Bankole, 2022. "Human Capital Development Challenge: Why Corruption Eradication is a Panacea in Nigeria," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(2), pages 180-205, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global sanction; corruption; conflict; politicial instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.