IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10388.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Young Voters and Budget Deficits

Author

Listed:
  • Ole Henning Nyhus
  • Bjarne Strøm

Abstract

This paper exploits a novel trial in Norwegian local elections in 2011 to provide empirical evidence on fiscal performance from lowering the minimum voting age from 18 to 16. Using a difference in differences research strategy, we find that this voting age change reduced the net operating surplus by around 600NOK (€60) per capita. This finding is consistent with micro evidence that young individuals have higher discount rates and are more likely to take risk than older ones, although other evidence is needed to confirm that interpretation. Further heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that increased deficits (reduced net operating surplus) due to the extension of the youth voting franchise mainly appear in governments with low party fragmentation and a large share of socialist politicians in the local council.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole Henning Nyhus & Bjarne Strøm, 2023. "Young Voters and Budget Deficits," CESifo Working Paper Series 10388, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10388
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10388.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2011. "Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, And Behavioral Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 522-550, June.
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    3. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2014. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Persistent Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1557-1614, September.
    4. Graziella Bertocchi & Arcangelo Dimico & Francesco Lancia & Alessia Russo, 2020. "Youth Enfranchisement, Political Responsiveness, and Education Expenditure: Evidence from the US," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 76-106, August.
    5. Nyhus, Ole Henning & Strøm, Bjarne, 2023. "School spending and extension of the youth voting franchise: Quasi-experimental evidence from Norway," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2012. "Rotten Parents and Disciplined Children: A Politico‐Economic Theory of Public Expenditure and Debt," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2785-2803, November.
    7. Chapman, Jonathan, 2018. "Democratic Reform and Opposition to Government Expenditure: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Britain," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 13(4), pages 363-404, October.
    8. TokeS. Aidt & Martin Daunton & Jayasri Dutta, 2010. "The Retrenchment Hypothesis and the Extension of the Franchise in England and Wales," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 990-1020, September.
    9. Maria Martin-Rodriguez & Hikaru Ogawa, 2017. "The Empirics Of The Municipal Fiscal Adjustment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 831-853, July.
    10. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    11. Jonathan A. Rodden & Gunnar S. Eskeland (ed.), 2003. "Fiscal Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182297, April.
    12. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Melonie B. Williams, 2002. "Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1606-1617, December.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(3), pages 403-414.
    14. von Hagen, Jurgen & Harden, Ian J., 1995. "Budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 771-779, April.
    15. Poterba, James M, 1994. "State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August.
    16. Signe Krogstrup & Sébastien Wälti, 2011. "Women and Budget Deficits," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 712-728, September.
    17. Husted, Thomas A & Kenny, Lawrence W, 1997. "The Effect of the Expansion of the Voting Franchise on the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 54-82, February.
    18. Arnt Hopland, 2013. "Central government control and fiscal adjustment: Norwegian evidence," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 185-203, May.
    19. Alberto Abadie, 2005. "Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 1-19.
    20. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    21. Kenneth Houngbedji, 2016. "Abadie’s semiparametric difference-in-differences estimator," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(2), pages 482-490, June.
    22. Borge, Lars-Erik & Hopland, Arnt O., 2020. "Less fiscal oversight, more adjustment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    23. Inman, Robert P & Fitts, Michael A, 1990. "Political Institutions and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the U.S. Historical Record," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(0), pages 79-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feld, Lars P & Kirchgassner, Gebhard, 2001. "Does Direct Democracy Reduce Public Debt? Evidence from Swiss Municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 347-370, December.
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    3. Borge, Lars-Erik, 2005. "Strong politicians, small deficits: evidence from Norwegian local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 325-344, June.
    4. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Self-Enforcement," NBER Working Papers 23919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Signe Krogstrup & Sébastien Wälti, 2011. "Women and Budget Deficits," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 712-728, September.
    6. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    7. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2093-2127, September.
    8. Jonathan Chapman, 2020. "Extension of the Franchise and Government Expenditure on Public Goods: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century England," Working Papers 20200045, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Mar 2020.
    9. Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini & Ugo Troiano, 2011. "Policy Responses to Fiscal Restraints: A Difference-in-Discontinuities Design," Working Papers 397, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Jonathan Chapman, 2020. "Democracy, Redistribution, and Inequality: Evidence from the English Poor Law," Working Papers 20200050, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jun 2020.
    11. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2018. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion in a World Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2305-2334, August.
    12. Facundo Piguillem & Alessandro Riboni, 2015. "Spending-Biased Legislators: Discipline Through Disagreement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 901-949.
    13. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2014. "Determinants of Portuguese local governments’ indebtedness," NIPE Working Papers 16/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    14. Nyhus, Ole Henning & Strøm, Bjarne, 2023. "School spending and extension of the youth voting franchise: Quasi-experimental evidence from Norway," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Toke Aidt & Stanley L. Winer & Peng Zhang, 2020. "Franchise Extension and Fiscal Structure in the United Kingdom 1820-1913: A New Test of the Redistribution Hypothesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8114, CESifo.
    16. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2015. "Redistributive Politics And Government Debt In A Borrowing-Constrained Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 83-103, January.
    17. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9624.
    18. Aidt, Toke S. & Mooney, Graham, 2014. "Voting suffrage and the political budget cycle: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902–1937," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 53-71.
    19. Non, Arjan & Tempelaar, Dirk, 2016. "Time preferences, study effort, and academic performance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 36-61.
    20. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2017. "Inequality and public debt: A positive analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1155-1173, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    local public finance; fiscal performance; minimum voting age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10388. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.