Prediction and Determination of Household Permanent Income
This paper is about the determination and prediction of permanent income in household data. Standard static welfare indicators (e.g. per capita expenditure and income) are imperfect in this respect as they typically contain a high transitory component. The framework we employ is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis but is supplemented with a causes equation where unobservable permanent income is explicitly modelled as function of causal variables which play a key part in its determination. Simultaneous estimation of the model allows us to compare how well different standard static welfare indicators identify permanent income but more importantly enables us to predict permanent income using information contained both in the causal variables and in the standard static welfare indicators. The paper is closed by an pplication of the methodology to household data from the rual sector of two Chinese provinces.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1997|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glewwe, Paul & van der Gaag, Jacques, 1990. "Identifying the poor in developing countries: Do different definitions matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 803-814, June.
- Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1976.
"Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility,"
NBER Working Papers
0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Expected Poverty under Risk-Induced Welfare Variability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1171-82, December.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1970. "Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 441-54, October.
- Milton Friedman & Simon Kuznets, 1954. "Income from Independent Professional Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie54-1, June.
- Glewwe, Paul, 1991.
"Investigating the determinants of household welfare in Cote d'Ivoire,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-337, April.
- Glewwe, P., 1990. "Investigating The Determinants Of Household Welfare In Cote D'Ivoire," Papers 71, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
- Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Regressions Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:stidar:32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.