IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/26-36.html

New U.S. Business Establishments: Surging or Stalling?

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Cao
  • Henry Hyatt
  • Toshihiko Mukoyama
  • Erick Sager

Abstract

Since the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported much more rapid growth in U.S. private sector employer establishments than has the Census Bureau– the gap reached roughly 1.6 million by 2023. Using linked BLS-Census microdata, we document two main drivers. First, a large and growing number of employers providing services to the elderly and persons with disabilities are in scope for the BLS frame but not the Census Bureau’s. Second, many firms appear with substantially more establishments in the BLS frame. These discrepancies substantially affect the measured establishment size distribution and quantitative policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Cao & Henry Hyatt & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Erick Sager, 2026. "New U.S. Business Establishments: Surging or Stalling?," Working Papers 26-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2026/adrm/ces/CES-WP-26-36.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Autor, David & Patterson, Christina & Van Reenen, John, 2023. "Local and National Concentration Trends in Jobs and Sales: The Role of Structural Transformation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18101, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-938, October.
    3. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Nicholas Trachter, 2021. "Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 115-150.
    4. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Liliana Sousa & Stephen Tibbets, 2014. "Firm Age And Size In The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Data," Working Papers 14-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2023. "A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2675-2702.
    6. David Argente & Sara Moreira & Ezra Oberfield & Venky Venkateswaran, 2025. "Scalable Expertise: How Standardization Drives Scale and Scope," NBER Working Papers 34160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Keith Barnatchez & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker, 2017. "An Assessment of the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) Database," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-110, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Kristin Fairman & Lucia Foster & C.J. Krizan & Ian Rucker, 2008. "An Analysis of Key Differences in Micro Data: Results from the Business List Comparison Project," Working Papers 08-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dan Cao & Erick Sager & Henry Hyatt & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2019. "Firm Growth through New Establishments," 2019 Meeting Papers 1484, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    3. Xian Jiang, 2023. "Information and Communication Technology and Firm Geographic Expansion," CESifo Working Paper Series 10452, CESifo.
    4. Ezra Oberfield & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Plants in Space," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(3), pages 867-909.
      • Ezra Oberfield & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Nicholas Trachter & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2019. "Plants in Space," 2019 Meeting Papers 1507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
      • Ezra Oberfield & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Nicholas Trachter, 2020. "Plants in Space," NBER Working Papers 27303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban & Oberfield, Ezra & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel & Trachter, Nicholas, 2020. "Plants in Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 14823, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
      • Ezra Oberfield & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Nicholas Trachter, 2020. "Plants in Space," Working Paper 20-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2023. "The Firm Size-Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Business Concentration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 132-157, April.
    6. Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo & Josh De Lyon & Andrea Greppi & Oliviero Pallanch, 2026. "Defining the geographical level of competition: a taxonomy of industry tradability," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 93(371), pages 962-991, July.
    7. Ufuk Akcigit & Nathan Goldschlag, 2023. "Where Have All the "Creative Talents" Gone? Employment Dynamics of US Inventors," NBER Working Papers 31085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Federico S. Mandelman & Mishita Mehra & Hewei Shen, 2024. "Skilled Immigration Frictions as a Barrier for Young Firms," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2024-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo & Josh De Lyon & Andrea Greppi & Oliviero Pallanch & Miguel Chaves, 2024. "Industry concentration in Europe: Trends and methodological insights," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2024/06, OECD Publishing.
    10. Matias Covarrubias & Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 1-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ben Lipsius, 2018. "Labor Market Concentration does not Explain the Falling Labor Share," 2018 Papers pli1202, Job Market Papers.
    12. Metin Çakır & Xiangwen Kong & Clare Cho & Alexander Stevens, 2020. "Rural Food Retailing and Independent Grocery Retailer Exits," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1352-1367, October.
    13. Pedro Bento & Diego Restuccia, 2025. "The Role of Nonemployers in Business Dynamism and Aggregate Productivity," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 165-198.
    14. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 301-336.
    15. Babina, Tania & Fedyk, Anastassia & He, Alex & Hodson, James, 2024. "Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    17. Ufuk Akcigit & Nathan Goldschlag, 2025. "Measuring the characteristics and employment dynamics of U.S. inventors," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 237-269, June.
    18. Choi, Jaerim & Hyun, Jay & Park, Ziho, 2024. "Bound by ancestors: Immigration, credit frictions, and global supply chain formation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Anthony Savagar & Oluwaseun Aguda & Yannis Galanakis & Jingwei Wu, 2024. "Market concentration and productivity: evidence from the UK," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 459-482, December.
    20. Lyu, Wenyi & Yang, Jian & Yu, Leng, 2025. "Place-based policies, pro-competitive effects, and allocative efficiency: Evidence from China’s economic zones," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dawn Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.