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Estimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report

Author

Listed:
  • J. David Brown
  • Genevieve Denoeux
  • Misty L. Heggeness
  • Carl Lieberman
  • Lauren Medina
  • Marta Murray-Close
  • Danielle H. Sandler
  • Joseph L. Schafer
  • Matthew Spence
  • Lawrence Warren
  • Moises Yi

Abstract

This report develops a method using administrative records (AR) to fill in responses for nonresponding American Community Survey (ACS) housing units rather than adjusting survey weights to account for selection of a subset of nonresponding housing units for follow-up interviews and for nonresponse bias. The method also inserts AR and modeling in place of edits and imputations for ACS survey citizenship item nonresponses. We produce Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) tabulations using this enhanced CVAP method and compare them to published estimates. The enhanced CVAP method produces a 0.74 percentage point lower citizen share, and it is 3.05 percentage points lower for voting-age Hispanics. The latter result can be partly explained by omissions of voting-age Hispanic noncitizens with unknown legal status from ACS household responses. Weight adjustments may be less effective at addressing nonresponse bias under those conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • J. David Brown & Genevieve Denoeux & Misty L. Heggeness & Carl Lieberman & Lauren Medina & Marta Murray-Close & Danielle H. Sandler & Joseph L. Schafer & Matthew Spence & Lawrence Warren & Moises Yi, 2023. "Estimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report," Working Papers 23-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:23-21
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2023/adrm/ces/CES-WP-23-21.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce D. Meyer & Nikolas Mittag, 2019. "Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data to Better Measure Income: Implications for Poverty, Program Effectiveness, and Holes in the Safety Net," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 176-204, April.
    2. Jennifer Hook & Frank Bean & James Bachmeier & Catherine Tucker, 2014. "Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 699-726, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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