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The Rising Strength of Management, High Unemployment and Slow Growth: Revisiting Okun’s Law

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  • Reich, Michael

Abstract

Why is economic growth so slow and why are we having jobless recoveries? I address these questions here by revisiting Okun’s Law, focusing not just on its cyclical component but also upon its implied estimates of trend growth. Some observers argue that the rising strength of management (falling strength of labor) since the 1980s has led to a more volatile labor market and therefore to the decay of Okun’s Law. Using cross-state data since 1964 I examine whether Okun’s Law has changed in response to the decline of unionism. I find that the cyclical component of Okun’s Law does not need revision and that the trend growth component has declined moderately.

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  • Reich, Michael, 2012. "The Rising Strength of Management, High Unemployment and Slow Growth: Revisiting Okun’s Law," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt8sc8s1z1, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:indrel:qt8sc8s1z1
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    5. Katharine G. Abraham & Henry S. Farber, 1988. "Returns to Seniority in Union and Nonunion Jobs: A New Look at the Evidence," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 3-19, October.
    6. Reich, Michael, 2012. "Unemployment after the Great Recession: Why so High? What Can We Do?/El desempleo después de la Gran Recesión: ¿Por qué tan alto? ¿Qué podemos hacer?," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 11-28, Abril.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jong-seok Oh, 2018. "Changes in cyclical patterns of the USA labor market: from the perspective of nonlinear Okun’s law," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 237-258, March.

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