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The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices

  • Longstaff, Francis A.
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    We examine whether there is a flight-to-liquidity premium in Treasury bond prices by comparing them with prices of bonds issued by Refcorp, a U.S. Government agency. Since Refcorp bonds are, in effect, guaranteed by the Treasury, they have the same credit as Treasury bonds. We find a large liquidity premium in Treasury bonds, which can be more than fifteen percent of the value of some Treasury bonds. We find strong evidence that this liquidity premium is related to changes in consumer con- fidence, flows into equity and money market mutual funds, and changes in foreign ownership of Treasury debt. This suggests that the popularity of Treasury bonds directly affects their value

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    Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number qt7dc0t95b.

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    Date of creation: 01 May 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7dc0t95b
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    1. Longstaff, Francis A, 1992. "Are Negative Option Prices Possible? The Callable U.S. Treasury-Bond Puzzle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 571-92, October.
    2. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A, 2000. "Losing Money on Arbitrages: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt48k8f97f, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Menachem Brenner, 2001. "The Price of Options Illiquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 789-805, 04.
    4. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2002. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," NBER Working Papers 8990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-88, May.
    6. Boudoukh, Jacob & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1993. "Liquidity as a Choice Variable: A Lesson from the Japanese Government Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 265-92.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    8. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1986. "An Operational Measure of Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 43-55, March.
    9. Mark Grinblatt & Francis A. Longstaff, 2000. "Financial Innovation and the Role of Derivative Securities: An Empirical Analysis of the Treasury STRIPS Program," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1415-1436, 06.
    10. Kamara, A., 1988. "Trading Structures And Asset Pricing: Evidence From The Treasury Bill Markets," Papers 169, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    11. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    12. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    13. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    15. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Modeling Aggregate Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 187-91, May.
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