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The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices

  • Longstaff, Francis A.
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    We examine whether there is a flight-to-liquidity premium in Treasury bond prices by comparing them with prices of bonds issued by Refcorp, a U.S. Government agency. Since Refcorp bonds are, in effect, guaranteed by the Treasury, they have the same credit as Treasury bonds. We find a large liquidity premium in Treasury bonds, which can be more than fifteen percent of the value of some Treasury bonds. We find strong evidence that this liquidity premium is related to changes in consumer con- fidence, flows into equity and money market mutual funds, and changes in foreign ownership of Treasury debt. This suggests that the popularity of Treasury bonds directly affects their value

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    Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number qt7dc0t95b.

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    Date of creation: 01 May 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7dc0t95b
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    Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/anderson_fin/

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    1. Longstaff, Francis A, 1992. "Are Negative Option Prices Possible? The Callable U.S. Treasury-Bond Puzzle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 571-92, October.
    2. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    3. Jun Liu, 2004. "Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 611-641.
    4. Menachem Brenner & Rafi Eldor & Shmuel Hauser, 1999. "The Price of Options Illiquidity," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-086, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    6. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Modeling Aggregate Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 187-91, May.
    7. Kamara, A., 1988. "Trading Structures And Asset Pricing: Evidence From The Treasury Bill Markets," Papers 169, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    9. Boudoukh, Jacob & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1993. "Liquidity as a Choice Variable: A Lesson from the Japanese Government Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 265-92.
    10. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1986. "An Operational Measure of Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 43-55, March.
    11. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    13. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-88, May.
    14. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0zw4f9w6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Mark Grinblatt & Francis A. Longstaff, 2000. "Financial Innovation and the Role of Derivative Securities: An Empirical Analysis of the Treasury STRIPS Program," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1415-1436, 06.
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