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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, the federal budget deficit would grow substantially over the next few years, CBO projects, with accumulating deficits driving debt held by the public to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028. That amount would be far greater than the debt in any year since just after World War II. In CBO’s projections, real GDP growth is relatively strong this year and next, as recent changes in fiscal policy add to existing momentum.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028," Reports 53651, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:53651
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-04/53651-outlook-2.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2018. "The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Domenico Depalo, 2020. "Explaining the causal effect of adherence to medication on cholesterol through the marginal patient," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(S1), pages 110-126, October.
    3. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "Inequality, the risk of secular stagnation and the increase in household deb," Working Paper Research 375, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Bart Hobijn, 2020. "The Supply-Side Origins of U.S. Inflation," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 7, pages 227-268, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Frederick Treyz & Peter Evangelakis, 2018. "Immigration and United States Economic Growth," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 134-140, July.
    6. Emanuel Kopp & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Susanna Mursula & Suchanan Tambunlertchai, 2019. "U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017," IMF Working Papers 2019/120, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Dorine Boumans & Carla Krolage, 2018. "US-Steuer-und Handelspolitik – Einschätzung der Auswirkungen und bevorzugte Politikmaßnahmen weltweit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(11), pages 57-67, June.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "How Sensitive Are VAR Forecasts to Prior Hyperparameters? An Automated Sensitivity Analysis," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, volume 40, pages 229-248, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. David S. Johnson, 2019. "Presidential Address: Measurement Matters: Policy in Federal Statistics and Data," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 297-307, March.
    10. Office of Financial Research (ed.), 2018. "2018 Annual Report to Congress," Reports, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 18-01.
    11. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Mindy Herzfeld, 2021. "Designing international tax reform: lessons from TCJA," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1163-1187, October.
    13. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels, 2019. "Educational Intensity and the Sources of, and Prospects for, U.S. Economic Growth," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 161-186, Spring.
    14. Vipul Bhatt & Andre R. Neveu, 2019. "Re-Thinking Debt Burden: Going with the Flow?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 179-203, April.
    15. Edward Fox, 2020. "Does Capital Bear the U.S. Corporate Tax After All? New Evidence from Corporate Tax Returns," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 71-115, March.
    16. Crawford, Steven & Markarian, Garen, 2024. "The effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 on corporate investment11The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee, Heitor Almeida (editor), Novia Chen, Scott Dyreng, Ed Maydew, Sean McGuire, Vol," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.
    18. William G. Gale & Hilary Gelfond & Jason J. Fichtner & Benjamin H. Harris, 2021. "The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 145-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Aparna Mathur & Cody Kallen, 2019. "Estimating the distributional implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," AEI Economics Working Papers 1010239, American Enterprise Institute.
    20. Filippo Occhino, 2020. "The Effect of the 2017 Tax Reform on Investment," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(17), pages 1-5, July.
    21. Daniel Fried, 2021. "CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10," Working Papers 57326, Congressional Budget Office.
    22. Gale, William & Gelfond, Hilary & Fichtner, Jason, 2018. "How Will Retirement Saving Change by 2050? Prospects for the Millennial Generation," MPRA Paper 99196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    24. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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