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Is There an Alternative to Export-led Growth for Thailand?

  • Chaipat Poonpatpibul

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Nutthikarn Vorasangasil

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Manatchai Junetrakool

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Punjaphut Prasitdechsakul

    (Bank of Thailand)

Registered author(s):

    To answer the question of whether there is an alternative to exportled growth in Thailand, this study investigates the importance of exports to the Thai economy followed by the assessment about the potential of domestic demand to replace exports as the main engine for economic growth. It is found that the export sector has been the significant provider of income for the economy and the most important engine of growth since 1997. Due to the small domestic market, domestic demand would not be able to replace exports as the superior engine in the medium and long term Besides, the Thai economy will still need to depend on the export sector for investment, employment and particularly productivity improvement. However, strengthening domestic demand would be crucial for the economy as 1) it would need to perform the important role as a buffer against negative foreign demand shocks and 2) there is the need to expand domestic demand especially investment to help ensure economic recovery as well as achieve sustainable long term growth.

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    Paper provided by Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand in its series Working Papers with number 2009-02.

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    Length: 97 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bth:wpaper:2009-02
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    1. Nuno Crespo & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2005. "Determinant Factors of FDI Spillovers – What Do We Really Know?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2005/06, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    2. Greenaway, David & Guariglia, Alessandra & Kneller, Richard, 2007. "Financial factors and exporting decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 377-395, November.
    3. Joachim Wagner, 2005. "Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence fro Firm Level Data," International Trade 0504005, EconWPA.
    4. Jan De Loecker, 2004. "Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," LICOS Discussion Papers 15104, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    5. Nuno Crespo & Isabel Proença & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2008. "FDI Spillovers at Regional Level: Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp0508, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    7. Alvarez, Roberto, 2007. "Explaining Export Success: Firm Characteristics and Spillover Effects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 377-393, March.
    8. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Giuseppe Iarossi & Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 2002. "Exports and Manufacturing Productivity in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis with Firm-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 8894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. McCoy, Daniel, 1997. "How useful is Structural VAR Analysis for Irish economics?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
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