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A Variation on Ellsberg

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Abstract

Ellsberg's experiment involved a gamble with no ambiguity (N) and a gam- ble where the prize that could be won is objectively known, but the winning probability depends on the (ambiguous) urn's composition (P). We extend this by including a gamble where the winning probability is objectively known, but the prize depends on the urn's composition (C), and also gambles where both the probability and the prize depend on the urn's composition, and can either be correlated positively (D) or negatively (M). Among transitive subjects who prefer N to P, 40% prefer D to N, 74% prefer D to P, 97% prefer D to M, and the modal ranking (about 39%) satis es D

Suggested Citation

  • Kfir Eliaz & Pietro Ortoleva, 2011. "A Variation on Ellsberg," Working Papers 2011-6, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2011-6
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    1. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2013. "Ambiguity and robust statistics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 974-1049.
      • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Ambiguity and Robust Statistics," Working Papers 382, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon & Klibanoff, Peter & Ozdenoren, Emre, 2000. "Maxmin expected utility through statewise combinations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 49-54, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Kelsey & Sara Roux, 2015. "An experimental study on the effect of ambiguity in a coordination game," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 667-688, December.
    2. David Kelsey & Sara le Roux, 2018. "Strategic ambiguity and decision-making: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 387-404, May.
    3. Sameh Habib & Daniel Friedman & Sean Crockett & Duncan James, 2017. "Payoff and presentation modulation of elicited risk preferences in MPLs," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 3(2), pages 183-194, December.

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    Keywords

    Ellsberg Paradox; Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity Aversion; MaxMin Expected Utility.;
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