IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/brk/wpaper/0804.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Information Content of Implied Probabilities to Detect Structural Change

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Guay

    () (Department of Economics, Universite du Quebec a Montreal)

  • Jean-Francois Lamarche

    () (Department of Economics, Brock University)

Abstract

This paper proposes Pearson-type statistics based on implied probabilities to detect structural change. The class of generalized empirical likelihood estimators (see Smith, 1997) assigns a set of probabilities to each observation such that moment conditions are satisfied. These restricted probabilities are called implied probabilities. Implied probabilities may also be constructed for the standard GMM (see Back and Brown, 1993). The proposed test statistics for structural change are based on the information content in these implied probabilities. We consider cases of structural change with unknown breakpoint which can occur in the parameters of interest or in the overidentifying restrictions used to estimate these parameters. The test statistics considered here have good size and power properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Guay & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2005. "The Information Content of Implied Probabilities to Detect Structural Change," Working Papers 0804, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://brocku.ca/repec/pdf/0804.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2005. "GMM, GEL, Serial Correlation, and Asymptotic Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 983-1002, May.
    2. Alain Guay & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2010. "Structural change tests for GEL criteria," Working Papers 1002, Brock University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    5. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, January.
    6. Otsu, Taisuke, 2006. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Inference For Nonlinear And Time Series Models Under Weak Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 513-527, June.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    9. Joaquim J.S. Ramalho & Richard J. Smith, 2005. "Goodness of Fit Tests for Moment Condition Models," Economics Working Papers 5_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    11. Smith, Richard J., 2011. "Gel Criteria For Moment Condition Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(06), pages 1192-1235, December.
    12. Gregory, Allan W. & Lamarche, Jean-Francois & Smith, Gregor W., 2002. "Information-theoretic estimation of preference parameters: macroeconomic applications and simulation evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 213-233, March.
    13. Antoine, Bertille & Bonnal, Helene & Renault, Eric, 2007. "On the efficient use of the informational content of estimating equations: Implied probabilities and Euclidean empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 461-487, June.
    14. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
    15. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
    16. Guido W. Imbens & Richard H. Spady & Phillip Johnson, 1998. "Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 333-358, March.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    18. Yuichi Kitamura, 2001. "Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1661-1672, November.
    19. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
    20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    21. Hall, Alastair R & Sen, Amit, 1999. "Structural Stability Testing in Models Estimated by Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 335-348, July.
    22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-280, July.
    23. Mehmet Caner, 2010. "Exponential Tilting with Weak Instruments: Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(3), pages 307-325, June.
    24. Back, Kerry & Brown, David P, 1993. "Implied Probabilities in GMM Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 971-975, July.
    25. Susanne M. Schennach, 2007. "Point estimation with exponentially tilted empirical likelihood," Papers 0708.1874, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generalized empirical likelihood; generalized method of moments; parameter instability; structural change;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Francois Lamarche). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/debroca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.