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Volatility forecasting for crude oil futures

  • L. Lambertini

This paper studies the forecasting properties of linear GARCH models for closing-day futures prices on crude oil, first position, traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange from January 1995 to November 2005. In order to account for fat tails in the empirical distribution of the series, we compare models based on the normal, Student’s t and Generalized Exponential distribution. We focus on out-of-sample predictability by ranking the models according to a large array of statistical loss functions. The results from the tests for predictive ability show that the GARCH-G model fares best for short horizons from one to three days ahead. For horizons from one week ahead, no superior model can be identified. We also consider out-ofsample loss functions based on Value-at-Risk that mimic portfolio managers and regulators’ preferences. EGARCH models display the best performance in this case.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 598.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:598
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  1. Caputo, Michael R., 2007. "The envelope theorem for locally differentiable Nash equilibria of finite horizon differential games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 198-224, November.
  2. Fershtman, C. & Kamien, M.I., 1988. "Turnpike Properties In A Finite Horizon Differential Game: Dynamic Duopoly With Sticky Prices," Papers 4-88, Tel Aviv.
  3. Fershtman, Chaim & Kamien, Morton I, 1987. "Dynamic Duopolistic Competition with Sticky Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1151-64, September.
  4. Tsutsui, Shunichi & Mino, Kazuo, 1990. "Nonlinear strategies in dynamic duopolistic competition with sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 136-161, October.
  5. R. Cellini & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Dynamic Oligopoly with Sticky Prices: Closed-Loop,Feedback and Open-Loop Solutions," Working Papers 393, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  6. Dixit, Avinash K, 1986. "Comparative Statics for Oligopoly," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 107-22, February.
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