Risk Management in Public Civil Protection Policy: A Joint Incident Command Decision Model under Asymmetric Institutional Adaptation in Greece

The article examines how Asymmetric Institutional Adaptation (AIA) affects the multi-level governance of disaster risk in Greece and proposes the Joint Incident Command Decision Model (JICDM) as an instrument for more targeted escalation of the involvement of the General Secretariat for Civil Protection (GSCP). Drawing on research conducted with GSCP officials and Fire Service Commanders, the article develops three composite indices that capture perceived risk intensity, the quality of institutional coordination, and the level of capacity and organizational learning. These indices are grouped into three tiers (low, medium, high), enabling the identification of distinct "profiles" of risk and governance in mainland, island, and mixed areas. The findings indicate that Fire Service Commanders systematically report higher levels of risk, coordination, and capacity compared to GSCP officials, and that AIA manifests more strongly in the dimensions of governance and capacity than in the perceived intensity of risk itself. The JICDM is formulated as a decision tree that links the three indices to threshold rules for joint incident command, with a central element being the "critical profile" of high risk combined with low governance or capacity, which mandates joint command activation, whereas more favourable profiles permit more decentralized leadership accompanied by targeted interventions to strengthen coordination and learning.