System-wide liquidity risk in the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system: an empirical analysis
When settling their own liabilities and those of their clients, settlement banks rely on incoming payments to fund a part of their outgoing payments. We investigate their behaviour in CHAPS, the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system. Our estimates suggest that in normal times, banks increase their payment outflows when their liquidity is above target and immediately following the receipt of payments. We use these estimates to determine the robustness of this payment system to two hypothetical behavioural changes. In the first, a single bank stops sending payments, perhaps because of an operational problem. In the second, it pays out exactly what it previously received, relying exclusively on the liquidity provided by other system members. Using the observed uncertainty around our estimated behavioural equations, we derive probabilistic statements about the time at which the bank’s counterparties would run out of liquidity if they followed their estimated normal-time behaviour.
|Date of creation:||31 May 2011|
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- Beyeler, Walter E. & Glass, Robert J. & Bech, Morten L. & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2007.
"Congestion and cascades in payment systems,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 693-718.
- Christopher Becher & Marco Galbiati & Merxe Tudela, 2008. "The timing and funding of CHAPS sterling payments," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 113-133.
- Kimmo Soramaki & Morten L. Bech & Jeffrey Arnold & Robert J. Glass & Walter Beyeler, 2006.
"The topology of interbank payment flows,"
243, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
- Becher, Christopher & Millard, Stephen & SoramÃÂÃÂ¤ki, Kimmo, 2008. "The network topology of CHAPS Sterling," Bank of England working papers 355, Bank of England.
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