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Credible Disinflation Policy in a Dynamic Setting

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College)

  • Meral Karasulu

    (Bogazici University)

Abstract

This paper builds upon the analysis of Orphanides and Wilcox (1996) to evaluate optimal anti-inflation policy under a broader set of circumstances than considered in their work. We consider a monetary authority with two instruments--the funds rate and the discount rate--with the distinction that only movements of the latter are 'credible' alterations of the Fed's policy stance, reflecting reputational effects. The public forms expectations of inflation given realized inflation and the expected progress toward lower inflation, as evidenced by credible policy moves. Optimal policy is formulated in a stochastic, dynamic setting of the Tinbergen-Theil framework. The presence of a "cost-of-change" penalty on the sequence of discount rate adjustments generates expected trajectories for targets and policy instruments which differ considerably from those lacking such a penalty.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & Meral Karasulu, 1997. "Credible Disinflation Policy in a Dynamic Setting," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 375, Boston College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:375
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    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp375.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John B. Taylor, 1994. "The inflation/output variability trade-off revisited," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 21-24.
    2. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    3. Baum, Christopher F & Karasulu, Meral, 1998. "Modelling Federal Reserve Discount Policy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 53-70, April.
    4. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    5. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2006. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1877-1893, November.
    6. Roszbach, Kasper, 1997. "Reaction Function Estimation when Central Banks Face Adjustment Costs," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 155, Stockholm School of Economics.
    7. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P A, 1998. "Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 21-40, April.
    8. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71.
    9. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    disinflation; credibility; optimal policy design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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