IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2010_31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The relationship between bankruptcy risk and growth for non-listed firms

Author

Listed:
  • Kjell Bjørn Nordal

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Randi Næs

    (Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between bankruptcy risk and expected future sales growth for Norwegian non-listed firms for the period 1988-2007. We find that firms with high bankruptcy risk also have high expected future growth. Financial ratios characterizing firms with high bankruptcy risk also characterize firms with high future expected growth. Small firms, firms with low levels of equity and retained earnings, firms with low profitability and low levels of sales per unit of capital, have all higher expected future growth rates than other firms. These findings suggest a tradeoff between the upside potential of high growth and the downside risk of bankruptcy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2010. "The relationship between bankruptcy risk and growth for non-listed firms," Working Paper 2010/31, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2010_31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/Papers/Working-Papers/2010/WP-201031/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Luís M B Cabral & José Mata, 2003. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1075-1090, September.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    7. Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 643-684, April.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    11. Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2009. "Mean reversion in profitability for non-listed firms," Working Paper 2009/29, Norges Bank.
    12. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    15. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Joanna Błach & Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka, 2021. "Does Capital Structure Drive Profitability in the Energy Sector?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.
    2. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2014. "Asymmetric adjustment toward optimal capital structure: Evidence from a crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-242.
    3. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    4. Cumming, Douglas J. & Javakhadze, David & Rajkovic, Tijana, 2024. "Unlocking Dividends: The impact of managerial social capital on international corporate payouts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Amini, Shahram & Elmore, Ryan & Öztekin, Özde & Strauss, Jack, 2021. "Can machines learn capital structure dynamics?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Hong, Jifeng & Kazakis, Pantelis & Strieborny, Martin, 2024. "Green Bond Issuance by Firms, External Monitoring, and Probability of Default: An Empirical Research Based on Green Policies," MPRA Paper 123049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Grzegorz Pawlina & Luc Renneboog, 2005. "Is Investment‐Cash Flow Sensitivity Caused by Agency Costs or Asymmetric Information? Evidence from the UK," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(4), pages 483-513, September.
    8. Coad, Alex, 2010. "Neoclassical vs evolutionary theories of financial constraints: Critique and prospectus," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 206-218, August.
    9. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Wang, Yanzhi, 2012. "Financial constraints and share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 311-331.
    10. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    11. Faff, Robert & Kwok, Wing Chun & Podolski, Edward J. & Wong, George, 2016. "Do corporate policies follow a life-cycle?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 95-107.
    12. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Analyst coverage and default risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2009. "Mean reversion in profitability for non-listed firms," Working Paper 2009/29, Norges Bank.
    14. Malik, Neha & Kashiramka, Smita, 2025. "“ESG disclosure and its impact on firm leverage: Moderating role of quality of financial reporting and financial constraints”," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Cao, Shutao & Leung, Danny, 2020. "Credit constraints and productivity of SMEs: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 163-180.
    16. Xin Qu & Majella Percy & Fang Hu & Jenny Stewart, 2022. "Can CEO equity‐based compensation limit investment‐related agency problems?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2579-2614, June.
    17. Kim, Sang-Joon & Bae, John & Oh, Hannah, 2019. "Financing strategically: The moderation effect of marketing activities on the bifurcated relationship between debt level and firm valuation of small and medium enterprises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 663-681.
    18. Bae, John & Kim, Sang-Joon & Oh, Hannah, 2017. "Taming polysemous signals: The role of marketing intensity on the relationship between financial leverage and firm performance," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 29-40.
    19. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wöhle, Claudia B., 2004. "Kapitalstrukturtheorie in Theorie und Praxis: Ergebnisse einer Fragebogenuntersuchung," Working papers 2004/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    20. Rui Baptista & Murat Karaöz & João Correia Leitão, 2020. "Diversification by young, small firms: the role of pre-entry resources and entry mistakes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 103-122, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2010_31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.