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Mean reversion in profitability for non-listed firms

Author

Listed:
  • Kjell Bjørn Nordal

    () (Norges Bank)

  • Randi Næs

    () (Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry)

Abstract

The presence of mean reversion in profitability at the firm level is important for valuation and prediction of growth and earnings. We investigate the mean reversion in accounting profitability for Norwegian non-listed firms for the period 1988-2006. We find a mean reversion rate of about 0.44. This is higher than found in other studies. We also find that small firms have a higher mean reversion rate than large firms. Previously, price-to-book ratios have been used to investigate changes in profitability over time for listed firms. We examine bankruptcy risk as an alternative variable for unlisted firms. We find that bankruptcy risk may help explain changes in profitability, but the results are not as strong as found in previous work.

Suggested Citation

  • Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2009. "Mean reversion in profitability for non-listed firms," Working Paper 2009/29, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2009_29
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2009/WP-200929/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, June.
    4. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
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    6. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
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    8. Ball, Ray & Watts, Ross, 1972. "Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 663-681, June.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2010. "The relationship between bankruptcy risk and growth for non-listed firms," Working Paper 2010/31, Norges Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-listed firms; pro tability; mean reversion;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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