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Earnings acceleration and stock returns

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  • He, Shuoyuan
  • Narayanamoorthy, Ganapathi (Gans)

Abstract

We document that earnings acceleration, defined as the quarter-over-quarter change in earnings growth, has significant explanatory power for future excess returns. These excess returns are robust to a wide range of previously documented anomalies and a battery of risk controls. The future return predictability appears to be consistent with investors assuming a seasonal random walk model for quarterly earnings and missing predictable implications of earnings acceleration for future earnings growth. Finally, the excess returns from the basic earnings acceleration strategy can be enhanced further by focusing on profit firms, low earnings volatility firms and on specific patterns of earnings acceleration.

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  • He, Shuoyuan & Narayanamoorthy, Ganapathi (Gans), 2020. "Earnings acceleration and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:69:y:2020:i:1:s0165410119300333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2019.101238
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    Cited by:

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    2. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
    3. Yin, Libo & Yang, Zhichen, 2022. "The profitability effect: Insight from a dynamic perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Sanghyuk Byun & Kristin C. Roland, 2022. "Quarterly earnings thresholds: Making the case for prior quarter earnings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5-6), pages 690-716, May.
    5. Kaplanski, Guy, 2023. "The race to exploit anomalies and the cost of slow trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao, 2024. "Quality acceleration and cross-sectional returns: Empirical evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Regier, Matthias & Rouen, Ethan, 2023. "The stock market valuation of human capital creation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," SocArXiv z7k3p, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings acceleration; Trading strategy; Active investing; Mispricing; Anomaly;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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