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The Social Value of Policy Signals

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  • Stefan Avdjiev
  • Patrick McGuire

Abstract

Do public policy signals improve the alignment of market outcomes with economic fundamentals? Existing work contends that, when individual players have an incentive to coordinate their actions, public policy signals could steer these actions away from the fundamentals. We argue that such a conclusion rests on a restricted information structure, predicated on markets being segmented. Public policy signals are unambiguously beneficial in an integrated market, where they refine other public information that prices generate endogenously. An implication of this finding is that policy authorities have an important role to play in collecting and disseminating data on aggregate market positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Avdjiev & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "The Social Value of Policy Signals," BIS Working Papers 386, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:386
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
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    3. Manconi, Alberto & Massa, Massimo & Yasuda, Ayako, 2012. "The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007–2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 491-518.
    4. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    5. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
    6. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153.
    7. Sanford Grossman, 1989. "The Informational Role of Prices," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572141, March.
    8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    9. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," NBER Chapters,in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    11. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
    12. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giese, Julia & Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 21: How could macroprudential policy affect financial system resilience and credit? Lessons from the literature," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 21, Bank of England.
    2. repec:spr:joecth:v:66:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-017-1081-9 is not listed on IDEAS

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