IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1377.html

Hidden by complexity? Measuring stablecoin, crypto and decentralised finance ecosystems

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy Aerts
  • Ronald Heijmans
  • Jan Paulick
  • Violeta Vuletic

Abstract

Decentralised finance data presents a distinctive paradox: while every data point is publicly recorded and accessible, deriving meaningful insights is obscured by the scale, fragmentation and complexity of the ecosystem. Key metrics illustrate that the rapidly evolving DeFi ecosystem introduces unique challenges for economic and financial research in accurately capturing financial activity in DeFi. These challenges stem from protocol architecture and the technical execution of transactions that complicate deriving economic meaning. Leveraging blockchain data for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron, the paper illustrates three structural sources of measurement divergences: (1) the economically meaningful aggregation of Bitcoin transaction values, (2) the challenge of programmability and proliferation of spurious smart contracts and (3) comparability of use cases across different chains, exemplified by stablecoins. While the examples relate to specific chains and layers of technical execution, the measurement challenges generalise to all blockchains and DeFi ecosystems relying on a similar technical underpinning. We propose measurement approaches based on granular, data bounded estimates that incorporate explicit assumptions, technical classification and disaggregation to align technical execution with economic meaning. The paper demonstrates that, despite the transparency of public blockchains, widely used indicators of cryptoasset and DeFi activity are highly dependent on methodological choices and underlying assumptions that warrant careful interpretation. The findings imply that on-chain indicators should be treated as noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Aerts & Ronald Heijmans & Jan Paulick & Violeta Vuletic, 2026. "Hidden by complexity? Measuring stablecoin, crypto and decentralised finance ecosystems," BIS Working Papers 1377, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1377
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1377-hidden-complexity-measuring-stablecoin-crypto-and-decentralised-finance-ecosystems.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1377-hidden-complexity-measuring-stablecoin-crypto-and-decentralised-finance-ecosystems
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schilling, Linda & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Some simple bitcoin economics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 16-26.
    2. Matteo Aquilina & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2025. "Cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance: functions and financial stability implications," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 156, November.
    3. Julien Prat & Benjamin Walter, 2021. "An Equilibrium Model of the Market for Bitcoin Mining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2415-2452.
    4. Rainer Böhme & Nicolas Christin & Benjamin Edelman & Tyler Moore, 2015. "Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 213-238, Spring.
    5. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.
    6. Cole, Benjamin M. & Dyhrberg, Anne H. & Foley, Sean & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "Can Bitcoin be Trusted? Quantifying the economic value of blockchain transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Marcin Pietrzak, 2023. "What can monetary policy tell us about Bitcoin?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 545-559, December.
    8. Iñaki Aldasoro & Jon Frost & Hiro Ito, 2026. "The impact of stablecoins on the international monetary and financial system," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 170, November.
    9. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Hanna Halaburda & Guillaume Haeringer & Joshua Gans & Neil Gandal, 2022. "The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 971-1013, September.
    11. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    12. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    13. Sirio Aramonteand & Wenqian Huang & Andreas Schrimpf, 2021. "DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy Aerts & Ronald Heijmans & Violeta Vuletic & Jan Paulick, 2026. "Hidden by complexity? Measuring stablecoin, crypto and decentralised finance ecosystems," Working Papers 870, DNB.
    2. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    3. Raphael Auer & Ulf Lewrick & Jan Paulick, 2025. "DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows," BIS Working Papers 1265, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Lashkaripour, Mohammadhossein, 2024. "Some stylized facts about bitcoin halving," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    5. Matteo Benetton & Giovanni Compiani, 2024. "Investors’ Beliefs and Cryptocurrency Prices," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 197-236.
    6. Garratt, Rodney J. & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2026. "The crypto multiplier," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Di Casola, Paola & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2025. "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Civelli, Andrea & Jackson, Laura E., 2025. "Cryptocurrencies, stocks, and economic policy uncertainty: A FAVAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Peter Zimmerman, 2020. "Blockchain structure and cryptocurrency prices," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 855, Bank of England.
    10. Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Chen, Haiqiang & Gu, Ming & Liu, Xiaoqun, 2023. "What can we learn from the convenience yield of Bitcoin? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 141-153.
    11. repec:ces:ceswps:_8076 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jermann, Urban J., 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Lan, Tian & Frömmel, Michael, 2025. "Risk factors in cryptocurrency pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    15. Jung, Woosung & Park, Haerang, 2024. "Common factors in the returns on cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Yae, James & Tian, George Zhe, 2024. "Volatile safe-haven asset: Evidence from Bitcoin," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Li, Xiao & Wu, Ruoxi & Wang, Chen, 2024. "Impacts of bitcoin on monetary system: Is China's bitcoin ban necessary?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Hanna Halaburda & Guillaume Haeringer & Joshua Gans & Neil Gandal, 2022. "The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 971-1013, September.
    19. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    20. Hadhri, Sinda & Younus, Mehak & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2025. "Listening to the Market: Music sentiment and cryptocurrency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Rodney J. Garratt & Maarten R. C. van Oordt, 2023. "Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work–Based Cryptocurrencies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 6482-6507, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.