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Shifting forces behind RMB internationalization: evidence from the 2025 Triennial Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Juliana Robbert
  • Vladyslav Sushko
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

This paper explores factors driving the internationalization of Renminbi (RMB) trading, using data from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey of global foreign exchange turnover. We analyze both short-term (three-year) trading growth and long-term RMB turnover levels across jurisdictions. Unlike recent studies that struggled to identify sizable effects of real or financial links with China, we find that financial factors, especially banking links with China, play a key role, even over short horizons. These financial links reinforce market-driven "convergence" patterns, whereby RMB trading adjusts based on its under- or over-representation in total currency trading in a given location. However, this convergence is slower than previously reported, while financial drivers have grown in importance. For the long-term geographical distribution of RMB trading, financial links with China, including policy-driven variables such as qualified investor licenses, dominate, though trade links also contribute significantly. We also find that bilateral trade effects are stronger for cross-border RMB trading, and we report new insights on the dynamics in Asian financial centers and trading in spot versus derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Robbert & Vladyslav Sushko & Frank Westermann, 2026. "Shifting forces behind RMB internationalization: evidence from the 2025 Triennial Survey," BIS Working Papers 1345, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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