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AI and the global economy: implications for central banks

Author

Listed:
  • Iñaki Aldasoro
  • Leonardo Gambacorta
  • Enisse Kharroubi
  • Matthias Rottner

Abstract

The AI boom is driving a large, increasingly debt-financed investment surge and boosting trade and equity markets, generating sizeable terms-of-trade and wealth effects that differ across countries. The productivity payoff from AI, though potentially large, remains uncertain and uneven, across both sectors and countries. By simultaneously affecting demand and supply, AI blurs cyclical signals, complicating central banks' assessment of underlying economic conditions and monetary policy calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • Iñaki Aldasoro & Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Matthias Rottner, 2026. "AI and the global economy: implications for central banks," BIS Bulletins 130, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Michael E. Waugh, 2026. "Trade in AI-Related Products," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 46(1), June.
    3. Mauro Cazzaniga & Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Longji Li & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Augustus J Panton & Carlo Pizzinelli & Emma J Rockall & Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares, 2024. "Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2024/001, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Michael E. Waugh, 2026. "Trade in AI-Related Products," NBER Working Papers 35053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Aaron Mehrotra & Tommaso Oliviero, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact," BIS Working Papers 1321, Bank for International Settlements.
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