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Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Gambacorta
  • Enisse Kharroubi
  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • Tommaso Oliviero

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the positive effects of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) on growth rate of value added differ across countries in the short run. Using an empirical strategy inspired by Rajan and Zingales (1998) and a dataset covering 56 economies and 16 industries, we find that the differential growth effects arise from variations in sectoral exposure to cognitive and knowledge-intensive activities, differences in production structures, and countries' AI preparedness. Our results suggest that, on average, gen AI is likely to benefit advanced economies more than emerging market economies, thereby widening global income disparities in the near term.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Aaron Mehrotra & Tommaso Oliviero, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact," BIS Working Papers 1321, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mauro Cazzaniga & Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Longji Li & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Augustus J Panton & Carlo Pizzinelli & Emma J Rockall & Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares, 2024. "Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2024/001, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    3. Aldasoro, I. & Gambacorta, L. & Korinek, A. & Shreeti, V. & Stein, M., 2025. "Intelligent financial system: How AI is transforming finance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Iñaki Aldasoro & Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta & Daniel Rees, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation," BIS Working Papers 1179, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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