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Generative AI and Income Growth: Early Evidence on Global Data

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  • Francesco Venturini

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and global income growth, with a particular focus on the latest emerging category of digital technologies: generative AI (GenAI). GenAI introduces innovative methods for content creation and can assist with both manual and cognitive tasks, potentially transforming productivity, output, and employment dynamics. By analysing patent data from a global sample of countries, this study aims to assess whether GenAI, even in its early stages, exhibits a positive correlation with income growth. Our findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit quantitatively modest, association between GenAI and GDP per capita growth. Specifically, we estimate a growth premium of approximately 0.02 percentage points over a decade for countries adopting this emerging technology domain—reflecting the extensive margin of GenAI innovation. Additionally, when examining the scale of research efforts in this field (the intensive margin), we find that GenAI has contributed between 0.009 and 0.013 percentage points to GDP per capita growth since 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Venturini, 2025. "Generative AI and Income Growth: Early Evidence on Global Data," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 31-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2025:i:3:p:31-46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Growiec, 2025. "GNPJE Special Issue on Economic Impacts of Generative AI," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-5.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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