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Un análisis de sobrevaloración en el mercado de la vivienda en Colombia

  • Santiago Caicedo

    ()

  • Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera

    ()

  • David Pérez-Reyna

    ()

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo SVAR, donde se imponen restricciones de largo plazo para identificar choques de demanda y oferta en el mercado hipotecario. Con el modelo se analiza si el comportamiento del precio real de la vivienda en Colombia diverge de la tendencia de sus fundamentales, y se determina si ha existido sobrevaloración en los precios para el período 2008-2009. Los resultados sugieren que en el largo plazo los principales determinantes del precio de lavivienda son los choques de demanda por este activo, los costos de construcción asociados con los choques de oferta y el crecimiento económico. Finalmente, se encuentra que los actuales niveles de estos precios están por encima de lo proyectado por los fundamentales analizados.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Temas de Estabilidad Financiera with number 051.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:051
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  1. Jarociński, Marek & Smets, Frank, 2008. "House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 0891, European Central Bank.
  2. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
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