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The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Mexico

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  • García-Verdú Santiago

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the expected inflation distribution based on the surveys made to economic analysts in the private sector, by Banco de México. Conceptually, the analysis can be divided into three aspects: level, dispersion, and skewness, of expected inflation. It is anticipated that the behavior of these aspects will be consistent with the process of inflation convergence to its target, in the sense that the expected inflation level and dispersion, and the probability of observing a sizable realization of inflation have been diminishing, as the cited process has taken place. Additionally, first, a model is presented in which agents face a cost when they update their inflation expectation. This model explains some of the facts seen in inflation expectation dispersion. In the model, the decrease in the dispersion is consistent with an increase in the frequency with which the agents update their inflation expectation, as observed in the data. Second, under an event-study framework the respond of upside risks of inflation expectations to the approval of the Income Law is analyzed. The results suggest that once the cited law is approved, on average there is a decrease in such risks.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Verdú Santiago, 2012. "The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Working Papers 2012-06, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2012-06
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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/documentos-de-investigacion-del-banco-de-mexico/%7B8E2DEE80-3DA0-1AD5-4F94-918AD27FFF3F%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    3. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. Fabia A de Carvalho & Mauricio S. Bugarin, 2006. "Inflation Expectations in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 101-145, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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