The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in a monetary union: the case of Italy
We simulate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of different fiscal consolidation scenarios in Italy using a medium scale two-areas dynamic general equilibrium currency-union model. Differently from similar models, ours is rich in the terms of fiscal features. We assume distortionary taxes (on labor income, capital income and consumption) and welfare-enhancing public expenditure. We distinguish between public spending on final goods and services, public employment and transfers to households. The scenarios that we consider envisage a decreases in the public debt to GDP ratio of 10 percentage points in 5 years. Based on our simulations we find that: first, fiscal distortions are quantitatively significant; second, a consolidation strategy that reduces expenditure and simultaneously lowers tax rates has a positive effect on long-run GDP of 5% to 7% and on welfare of 4% to 7% of the initial levels, depending on the composition of the adjustment; third, consumption and investment are stable or grow on impact and along the path to the new steady state; finally, spillovers to the rest of the Euro area are expansionary and sizeable both in the long run and along the transition.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma|
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michel Juillard & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 07-32, Bank of Canada.
- Richard Rogerson, 2007.
"Taxation and Market Work: Is Scandinavia an Outlier?,"
NBER Working Papers
12890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Rogerson, 2007. "Taxation and market work: is Scandinavia an outlier?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 59-85, July.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam & Alessandro Rebucci & Jaewoo Lee & Benjamin L Hunt & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "GEM; A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2006.
"SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
- Erceg, Christopher & Guerriei, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008.
"Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
- Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 0747, European Central Bank.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006.
"Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1415-1433, September.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl, 2004. "Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide," NBER Working Papers 11000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2057, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
- Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008.
"Price stability with imperfect financial integration,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, 02.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression: 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture," Working Papers 618, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 1-15, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_747_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.