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The Evolution of Confidence for European Consumers and Businesses in France, Germany and Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo carnazza

    (ISAE)

  • Giuseppe Parigi

    (Banca d�Italia, Research Department)

Abstract

The paper examines the evolution of consumer and business confidence indexes in France, Germany and Italy since the mid-eighties, using regressions of the indexes on a set of common macroeconomic variables for each country. Comparison of the results across agents (i.e. consumers and entrepreneurs in the same country) and across countries highlights some differences in behaviour that have emerged in the last fifteen years. In particular, the paper inquires into the causes of the recent break in the relationship between the consumer and business confidence indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo carnazza & Giuseppe Parigi, 2001. "The Evolution of Confidence for European Consumers and Businesses in France, Germany and Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 406, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_406_01
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2001/2001-0406/tema_406_01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Focarelli & Alberto F. Pozzolo, 2000. "The determinants of cross-border bank shareholdings: an analysis with bank-level data from OECD countries," Proceedings 696, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Generale, Andrea & Hernando, Ignacio & Vermeulen, Philip & Von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 112, European Central Bank.
    2. Gergely Kiss & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2005/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    4. Raquel Henriques dos Santos, 2003. "The Use of Qualitative Data for Short Term Analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," MPRA Paper 42443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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