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Endogenous job destruction risk and aggregate demand shortages

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolò Gnocato

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper studies, analytically and quantitatively, the occurrence of demand-deficient recessions due to uninsurable unemployment risk when jobs are endogenously destroyed. The ensuing unemployment fears induce a precautionary saving motive that counteracts the desire to borrow during recessions: negative productivity shocks may cause falling natural interest rates and positive unemployment gaps. Analytically, these demand-deficient recessions are shown to require a lesser degree of real wage rigidity when jobs are destroyed endogenously rather than exogenously. Quantitatively, the demand-deficient nature of supply-driven recessions can only be captured when accounting for endogenous job destruction.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolò Gnocato, 2024. "Endogenous job destruction risk and aggregate demand shortages," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1444_24
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2024/2024-1444/en_tema_1444.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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