IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_942_25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Energy prices in the Bank of Italy macroeconometric model

Author

Listed:
  • Pietro Cova

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Davide Fantino

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Lisa Rodano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The sharp increases in energy commodity prices, and in particular in natural gas prices, in 2021 and 2022 led to a notable surge in inflation in Italy and the euro area. We extend the Bank of Italy's quarterly econometric model (BIQM) to adequately capture the direct and indirect inflationary and macroeconomic effects of the extraordinary increases in energy prices, modelling gas and oil prices separately. We assess the forecasting properties of the model and also evaluate the impact of the measures taken by governments to counter the macroeconomic consequences of the energy crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Lisa Rodano, 2025. "Energy prices in the Bank of Italy macroeconometric model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 942, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_942_25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2025-0942/QEF_942_25.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. López, Lucia & Odendahl, Florens & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks," Working Paper Series 2968, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2025. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2024. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: Disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Boeck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2025. "Natural gas prices, inflation expectations, and the pass-through to euro area inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Bobeica, Elena & Holton, Sarah & Huber, Florian & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2025. "Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model," Working Paper Series 3052, European Central Bank.
    6. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatilities, and Macroeconomic Transmission," LEM Papers Series 2025/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro-econometric models; Italy; forecasting; policy simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_942_25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.